I'm such an evangelist for innovation, but is there a way to test the impact of innovation? Theoretically, innovative companies should perform better, right? What if I took the Fast 50, which are Fast Company's annual lists of the 50 Most Innovative Companies, and checked their stock's performance?
The theory is that innovative companies should release interesting products and services within a year, and that should boost stock price. Here are the results:
These charts imply that if innovation leads to stock growth, it certainly doesn't show it convincingly.
Clearly this is just a rough historical analysis. Ideally, I would average these performances in proportion to the market caps of each company (or should they be inversely proportional to represent innovative upstarts?). And we'd want to see this over fifteen years. And maybe it just says that innovation didn't matter as much during the downturn. Because I'm sure during the boomtimes, people couldn't throw enough money at innovative companies. And who knows how good Fast is at identifying "innovativeness."
But look again. Run your eyes over the individual companies. It's like nearly half did worse than the S&P 500. You'd expect, that if innovation is the godsend we claim it is, that maybe two-thirds or three-quarters of these companies would outperform the S&P.
Notes:
I started with 2007's list because the previous lists aren't sophisticated enough. It wasn't until 2007 that it looks like Fast started evaluating the innovativeness of whole companies. I chose US stock symbols because realistically, I'm only going to invest in those. Also, not every item listed had a stock symbol. For example, "Team Obama" is not listed on any stock exchange last time I checked.



You need to use CAPM to separate the stock returns into alpha and beta. More innovative companies should have higher alpha. How much beta a company has is irreverent and is related other factors such as how much leverage it has employed.
You can also argue that during a downturn innovative companies should do worse since their innovativeness wouldn't pay off in a down economy while they continue to spend R&D.
Yeah, I think those are worth looking into.